This article is part of our DFS NFL series.
The long two-week wait for the Super Bowl is nearly over, and that leaves with us one final showdown slate to play for the season. Both FanDuel and DraftKings have some massive contests, highlighted by the NFL Big Game Bowl on FanDuel and the Super Bowl Millionaire on DraftKings. The Big Game Bowl features a $5 buy-in, with a size of 611,904 and $2.57 million in payouts ($1 million to first). The Millionaire is a $15 buy-in, with a size of 470,500 and $6 million in payouts ($1 million to first). As for the game itself, the Eagles are a 1.5-point favorite. With a 50.5-game total, the Eagles have an implied total of 26, while the Chiefs have an implied total of 24.5. there's plenty of offense projected for both sides, particularly because Kansas City's implied total is likely diminished by the uncertain health of Patrick Mahomes.
Injuries will be a major storyline at the position. Despite suffering a high-ankle sprain in the divisional round of the postseason, Patrick Mahomes ($17,500 FD, $11,000 DK) is the most expensive player on FD. While he moved around the pocket less in the AFC championship against Cincinnati, Mahomes did not appear significantly hampered by his ankle injury as he averaged 7.6 yards per attempt and threw for a pair of scores. He also completed three passes of at least 20 yards, so he pushed the ball down the field effectively. The primary concern for Mahomes is the matchup, particularly the Eagles' league-best pass rush. If he takes a hit to the lower body, he could be hampered significantly for the rest of the game. The Eagles' secondary is also strong. On paper, there are a lot of things pointing away from a ceiling performance for Mahomes, but his skill level warns us not to write him off entirely.
Jalen Hurts ($17,000 FD, $11,200 DK) is now five weeks removed from his return from a shoulder injury, though there are still some red flags about his health status. In particular, he's struggled to rush efficiently since retaking the field by averaging only three yards per carry. On the other hand, his volume has remained relatively strong, as he's averaged nine rushing attempts per game in that span. Even more positive, Hurts has three carries inside the opponents' five-yard line in two postseason contests and two rushing scores. All told, volume is easier to predict while efficiency can change quickly, so Hurts' current rushing slump isn't a huge red flag. He also hasn't put up particularly gaudy passing totals, though game script has limited his volume. In a matchup against the Kansas City offense, the likeliest game flow won't allow the Eagles to coast as they have to this point in the postseason.
Miles Sanders ($12,000 FD, $7,800 DK) is the most expensive running back in either contest. On the surface, it appears that he and Kenneth Gainwell ($8,500 FD, $5,000 DK) have split the workload fairly evenly in the postseason, as Sanders has only 28 carries to Gainwell's 26. However, in the first half of each game, when the games were still more competitive, Sanders has 23 carries to Gainwell's six. In other words, we should have confidence that Sanders remains Philadelphia's lead back. As was the case during the regular season, Sanders' value likely will come down to his ability to reach the end zone. Considering his price is higher than DeVonta Smith, Sanders likely won't be overly popular and is capable of popping a massive game — particularly on FD where his lack of involvement in the passing game is less glaring. Boston Scott ($7,500 FD, $3,000 DK) is an afterthought in the offense and isn't worth much consideration.
Kansas City's backfield is more difficult to project. Isiah Pacheco ($10,500 FD, $7,200 DK) has 22 carries compared to15 for Jerick McKinnon ($9,500 FD, $6,800 DK), and Pacheco has outgained McKinnon 121-26 on the ground in the playoffs. Perhaps more surprising, McKinnon has only four targets as opposed to Pacheco's seven. In small-field tournaments or cash games, recent track record points to Pacheco as the play. In a contest like the Big Game Bowl, it could pay to take the chance on a player like McKinnon — just understand the risk of playing him and use him in the appropriate contests. The wild card to this equation is the return of Clyde Edwards-Helaire ($6,500 FD, $1,000 DK). He was activated off injured reserve for practice leading up to the Super Bowl, though it's not clear if he will be active for the game. Even if he takes the field, he's not likely to earn enough volume to have fantasy value of his own, but he could chip into the opportunity of Pacheco and McKinnon.
Wide Receiver/Tight End
Travis Kelce ($14,000 FD, $10,600 DK) is the most expensive pass catcher and by far the Chiefs' top pass catcher. He has a 33 percent target share in the postseason, accounting for 25 of the team's 76 targets. He has six targets inside the red zone and three touchdowns. It's hard to envision a player in a better role, particularly with Mahomes as his quarterback. After Kelce, Kansas City lacks reliable pass catchers. JuJu Smith-Schuster ($9,000 FD, $5,600 DK) has surpassed three catches and 40 receiving yards in just two of his last seven games. In that same span, he has just two receptions of more than 20 yards and five red-zone targets. He's a better play on DK both from the way he produces points and from a price perspective. Marquez Valdes-Scantling ($8,000 FD, $6,200 DK) is the boom-bust option in the offense. He does have a touchdown reception in each of the Chiefs' two postseason games and recorded his second his second 100-plus yard performance of the season in the AFC championship. Valdes-Scantling has a higher ceiling than Smith-Schuster, and his style of play and price both dictate that he's a better play on FD. Even prior to his ankle injury in the AFC championship, Kadarius Toney ($7,000 FD, $4,400 DK) remained a part-time player in the offense. He has the ability to rack up receptions and yards after the catch, but his floor is virtually nonexistent. With Mecole Hardman out, Justin Watson ($5,500 FD, $2,000 DK) and Skyy Moore ($6,000 FD, $3,800 DK). Of the duo, Watson had a more impactful role during the regular season, though Moore's profile could be better suited for DK.
As is the case with running back, the Eagles' pass-catching hierarchy is fairly straightforward. A.J. Brown ($12,500 FD, $9,200 DK) and DeVonta Smith ($11,500 FD, $8,600 DK) are the priorities and their roles have converged in recent weeks. Their price has done the same, meaning neither clearly stands out as the better play. Overall, Brown has shown more big-game potential, as he posted more than 100 yards five times, including more than 150 receiving yards three times. He also added two multi-touchdown games. He stands out on FD as a result. Smith surpassed 100 yards in five games but reached 150 yards only once and has only one multi-touchdown game. Dallas Goedert ($10,000 FD, $6,400 DK) is the third priority in the passing game, but he cedes a lot of targets in the red zone to Brown and Smith and has also been used more in short areas of the field lately. I'd prefer to play him on DK, but he's a good pivot in tournaments for those who want to fade at least one of Smith and Brown. The only other wide receiver or tight end with multiple targets in the postseason is Zach Pascal ($5,500 FD, $800 DK), and he has been targeted only twice. Quez Watkins ($6,000 FD, $1,400 DK) made a sporadic impact during the regular season, but he has only one target combined across two postseason matchups.
Harrison Butker ($8,500 FD, $4,000 DK) has been perfect this postseason, posting 13 fantasy points in each of Kansas City's two playoff games. The Eagles allowed only 1.3 opponent field-goal attempts per game during the regular season, tied for the fewest in the league.
Like most Eagles, Jake Elliott ($8,000 FD, $4,200 DK) hasn't been asked to do much in the postseason. However, he was very accurate during the regular season (converted 87 percent of his field-goal attempts). The Chiefs weren't much more generous to opposing kickers, allowing only 1.5 field-goal attempts.
Defense & Special Teams
The Eagles ($9,000 FD, $3,600 DK) stand out in this area thanks to their fearsome pass rush and Mahomes' potentially limited mobility. They had an 11.5 percent sack rate — three percentage points higher than the next team in the regular season. Similarly, they averaged 4.1 sacks per game, 0.8 more than the second-best team.
The Chiefs ($8,000 FD, $3,400 DK) aren't known for their defense, though they posted 3.3 sacks per game — second highest in the league. They've also scored at least 10 FD points in half of their last eight games and at least 10 DK points in four of their last nine games.